Nvidia: Should investors avoid the tech giant?(엔비디아 주식을 계속 매입해야 하는가?)

One of the dominant forces on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is Nvidia (NVDA). The tech giant has seen a record-breaking rally, but should investors continue to buy at its height? Theory Ventures General Partner Tomasz Tunguz joins for the latest edition of Good Buy or Goodbye to give insight into how investors should play the tech sector.

Tunguz calls Microsoft (MSFT) a "good buy," citing a multi-billion dollar run rate business in AI, its leadership in enterprise AI, and ample room for growth given AI's limited penetration in Microsoft's customer base. However, Tunguz highlights Microsoft's fraying relationship with OpenAI as a key concern.

Tunguz says "goodbye" to Nvidia, citing the rise of competition in the space. He warns that the company may need to diversify into software, which will be an uphill battle for the company moving forward.

This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

 

 

 

Our goal.

To help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your portfolio.

And today we're looking at the most valuable public companies as they battle it out for the top market cap spot.

I'm here with Theory Ventures founder Thomas and interesting.

Here.

You're looking at these mega cap tech stocks and let's get to your buy stock.

That is Microsoft now.

Microsoft obviously has already had a big run, right?

It's helped by all of this optimism about a I, but you think it's still a good buy.

So let's get to why.

First of all, you think that the potential in a I is even bigger.

It's enormous.

Microsoft, if you look at it, is basically the leader in a I.

They've developed a 5 billion run rate business in about 18 months, and, uh, because of their relationship with Open A I at least initially and their significant investments in data centres spending about 15 billion a quarter on Capex, uh, just in the data centre alone and since we're just in the early days, really, I think the stock has a meaningful way to run.

If you look at their relative share compared to Amazon and Google, they're actually winning share away from the other clouds.

And then the last dynamic is five years ago.

Most start ups really wanted when they started to build their companies, they wanted to build on Amazon.

And today most companies are actually building on top of Microsoft because they want access to those A. I features early on top of azure specifically.

Yeah, interesting.

So, um and a I is really then where they sit and where the strength is for a Microsoft, right?

I mean, and obviously they have all those other relationships outside of Azure with all the other software that they provide as well.

That's right.

I mean, you look at Microsoft.

I mean by far the largest software company in the world.

The major motion that they're now pursuing is the ability to cross sell.

So if you're a software engineer and you want a I, Microsoft will sell it to you.

If you want a laptop with a I, Microsoft will sell it to you.

The other dynamic is they support many different A I families of models.

So there's the open A I models.

There's the Facebook meta models.

Like the llama models, they support all of them.

They're developing their own models, and as a result of that broad penetration within enterprise, they have access to lots of data that other people just don't have.

And so they can train and they can infer and build new products.

And that cross sell, I think, will really lead them to build a pretty significant a. I business.

I mean 5 billion in 18 months, growing 700% year over year.

It's pretty amazing ability to create market cap.

And even with that growth, you say there's still a lot of room to grow because the A i stuff that they are now providing.

Not all customers are using it yet or they're not using the full scope of the capabilities.

That's exactly right.

So large numbers of customers I think it's something like 80% of the Fortune 500 are now using a I, but the penetration is still really quite small if you look at all the different products.

Nadel Satya Nadella done just a phenomenal job of prioritising within each of the product lines a I being the the most important feature that they sell, and it's starting to gain significant penetration.

But we're still really in early days.

The impact of some of these businesses in terms of efficiency is absolutely massive.

So Microsoft themselves are seeing a 50% improvement in developer productivity through their A I service now 75% you saw Klarna announced a quarter ago that they cut two thirds of their customer support team as a result of a I.

So there's a lot of efficiency that Microsoft's A I in particular and their systems will bring to these very large companies and they'll be able to read disproportionate share.

So we always like to point out potential risks when we're talking about one of these goodbye, goodbye cases.

And in this case, it's maybe that as you mentioned, the Open A I partnership is now a strength.

But maybe it won't last forever.

It won't last forever.

When you look at what open a I announced two weeks ago with the integration into Apple, you can see that Open is looking to broaden out its distribution, and that's really important.

Open A and Microsoft had a strategic relationship.

Microsoft invested about 13 billion and, uh, open A was using a lot of the azure chips in order to train and run the inference.

Microsoft then decided to start to sell directly to their enterprises, competing a little bit with Open A I and then open A. I is now pushing more in a consumer search direction.

So I think you'll see open A and Microsoft start to compete more and more, which will challenge that pretty key relationship.

And there may be some headwinds there.

I think that risk is mitigated by the fact that there's so many model families, so many different kinds of a I that Facebook and others are creating that Microsoft should be able to differ certify.

But this is an important risk for sure.

Yeah, interested and keep an eye on.

All right, let's get to the stock that you're avoiding right now, and this is I gotta say, you might be in the minority on this one.

We're talking about NVIDIA because you know, most of the folks we talk to are big fans of NVIDIA, and they think it's gonna continue to grow.

Obviously, the stock performance has been incredible.

I mean, when it gained as much as it did last year, we said There's no way that can keep going And it has So But you you talk about the competition, which is something that is out there.

Certainly a lot of folks have brought up this issue, right?

So NVIDIA, unbelievable performance, right?

You've seen revenue increase.

Five X.

You've seen profitability go from profits go from about 4 billion to 4.

40,000,000,046 billion four years.

Really incredible business.

It's really driven by a I and the inference when you have those profit margins like 60% you're going to face a lot of competition.

And it's not like I mean, Google has been developing their own TPU chips.

Amazon has both training and inference chips.

A MD just announced the chip that is 30% more powerful than the current NVIDIA H 100 which is the dominant inference chip.

And so there will be significantly more competition here.

And if you look at NVIDIA's profitability growth, it's basically just a doubling or tripling in prices in terms of the GP US and as more competition comes in as the Capex spend increases pretty materially on the development of these chips.

I think those profit margins ultimately shrink.

Interesting.

OK, And let's also talk about valuation because that's a part of the story.

Um, so if you look at the PE that we have seen and this is the forward PE, this is going back, Um uh, five years, I believe on this forward PE and you have seen sort of spikes in the PE.

And then it's come back down, right?

So what is that?

I mean, we're not quite at the spike yet here and in fact, a lot of the people we talked to say, actually, the the valuation hasn't gone up that much.

But how are you thinking about the waves that we have seen?

So in video, if you look at the stock over a 15 year basis, has seen three major waves.

The first wave was around gaming in the 2010 2012 time frame.

The second wave was driven by crypto uh, in sort of the 2018, 2020 wave.

Yeah, and now we're sort of in the a I wave, and at each point in those waves, the PE has gone above 50 then 68 quarters later has fallen to 25.

So the counter argument would be, well, this wave will run a lot longer because, uh, the and the the NVIDIA team has said, at least through the end of next year, there's plenty of demand for GP US that outstrip supply.

But over time, the reality is like this is a company that's selling chips, and these kinds of multiples are, I think, really difficult to sustain over the long term, right?

It's quite unusual.

So they need to look into software, and they already have, right, they they're selling sort of the sweet, including the chips, including the whole, um, the rack as part of the whole selling point and the software.

But you think they need to get more.

I think they absolutely need to get more into software.

I mean, you think about, um, the multiples that software companies have.

They typically trade as a function of revenue, particularly the high growth ones, and I put in VD.

If you were to think about it as a software company, would probably trade it somewhere between 12 to 18 times top quartile, maybe even a little higher just because of the dynamics around a I and how special they are.

But the reality is the fraction of revenue today it's in software is is not disclosed, and it's probably still quite small.

So as the demand for GP US attenuates with time, they will need software to meaningfully boost up their multiple, particularly because the growth rates of the data centre business will plateau today.

You're seeing, uh, Microsoft and Google and, um, and Amazon spend about 12 to $15 billion in the data centre, a quarter over time.

That will sort of that will sort of decrease.

And so the growth rate in the data centre part of the business, which today is about 60% of the revenue and by far the fastest growing compared to gaming and automotive will slow.

And so software will absolutely be the key.

Very interesting.

OK, so let's get to what, though could go right for NVIDIA.

And that's just that, you know, there is this promise of competition, but it may not come for a while.

That's right.

So I I'm a long term investor, so I'm thinking about 3 to 5 years in terms of how people actually compete with NVIDIA, you need to produce chips, right?

And within the US.

Our ability to fabricate chips is pretty limited because we've outsourced that through the whole fabulous wave in the eighties and nineties.

And it's it will take a long time to get these fabs fabrication manufacturing facilities up and running.

And the time to ship some of these chips is a lot longer.

It's just in software, right?

There's tape out.

You have to actually produce it.

There's yield management.

There are all kinds of supply chains, and so it may take longer than and particularly.

I mean, you look at Facebook will spend alone $20 billion this year buying GP US, Amazon and Google who are building their own chips.

They may not be able to ramp production that quickly or even, uh, satisfying that demand.

In fact, Microsoft right in the last quarterly, uh, release said that, um, they're unable to satisfy the demand, so yeah, so OK, well, we'll see what happens with NVIDIA real quickly before we let you go.

What are your positions in each of these stocks?

So I hold, uh, Microsoft is my single, largest public position.

Uh, NVIDIA is a very, very small position.

Got you OK, Tomas.

Thanks so much.

Really appreciate it.

Interesting stuff and a little bit of contrarian.

Take on NVIDIA.

Appreciate it.

Thank you so much for watching goodbye or goodbye.

 

Thursday saw the worst trading day for the semiconductor sector in seven weeks. Earnings revisions for some of the top tech stocks like Nvidia, (NVDA) Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META) , and Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL) are currently over 35% higher than that of the entire S&P 500 (^GSPC).

McDonald's (MCD) is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with its same-store sales lagging behind competitors like Burger King. This shift in market dynamics comes as fast-food chains increasingly pivot towards value-focused meal options to attract budget-conscious consumers.

Headline venture partner Kamran Ansari joined the show give insight into the state of the venture capital landscape as the AI craze continues to ripple across markets, touching on what makes a great founder.

Check out how Amazon Web Services (AMZN) wants to use artificial intelligence to improve healthcare in the latest edition of Lead This Way.

 

I'm Josh Lipton for the ext half hour.

Gonna be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow.

Here's some of the trends.

We're gonna be diving into the S and P 500 pulled back today after briefly passing 5500 for the first time ever, blame sliding tech stocks for lost traction though the broader index still on track here for gains in this holiday shortened week of trading plus his tech names scramble to cash in on the A I craze where do start ups fit into the hype.

We're going to speak with one early stage investor about trends within venture capital and health care is one of the sectors getting a piece of that A I funding pie.

Thanks to new initiatives from Amazon web services.

We're gonna be taking a closer look at the problem A I is setting out to fix on our latest edition of lead this way.

Now, if recent earnings are any indication, all it takes to drive investor enthusiasm is A I but for smaller start ups, it's a competitive landscape out there, especially in technology.

So where are the venture investors looking for with me?

Now is headline venture partner, Cameron.

I'm sorry, Cameron.

Great to see you as always my friend.

Good to see you.

Thank you.

I thought we were talking Cameron off camera.

I thought we'd start with, uh, you kind of jo listen, you're, you're meeting a lot of interesting smart founders and entrepreneurs and I, I wanna start with just what you interests you right now in terms of just broad topics and trends.

Is it, is it just A I 24 7 right now, Cameron, is that it?

I, I mean, you know, just I was joking with somebody if you had dot A I to the end of your URL, then you increase your evaluation of two X.

 

There's never enough time in the day to trade, as Market Domination Hosts Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton walk investors through the final trading hour of Thursday, June 20. They cover the top trending stocks and market movements ahead of the closing bell.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) CEO Antonio Neri discusses HPE's new partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) on its line of "Nvidia AI Computing by HPE" product offerings.

National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) CEO Jim Tobin stops into the studio to tackle some of the biggest challenges the US housing market is currently facing.

Yahoo Finance's top trending stock tickers this hour include Gilead Sciences (GILD), commercial-grade EV maker Nikola (NKLA), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Hello and welcome to market domination.

I'm Julie Hyman.

That's Josh Lift in live from our New York City headquarters.

We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money.

Related Videos

 

And here's your headline blitz.

Get you up to speed one hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street.

The fact of the matter is the global rate cutting cycle is already well underway.

We track 37 central banks, 20 of them are already cutting rates.

The fed is going to join the party.

Probably at some point this year, we're 90 days away from the September fed meeting.

Traders are pricing in a 67% chance that that's the first cut.

I think that's what investors need to focus on buyers of.

They've pretty much um, become acclimated to these um, new mortgage rates.

I mean, obviously 2 3% was at a historic low, but even at 7% historically, um those numbers are low from a historic level.

Um And again, even though they've risen over the last couple of years, um they are low by historic standards.

D is the the best bellwether for full service restaurant stocks in, in the space that we cover.

Um, they, they've continued to see, um, a little bit of pressure on the low end consumer.

But one of the things that I thought was really interesting from the earnings call this morning was that, uh, they're actually seeing a little bit less check management on the business as a whole.

We've got one hour to go until the market close.

So let's take a look at the major averages here.

We've got a mixed picture with the dow, the winner of the day switch from lately here up almost a 1% about 356 points.

Right now.

We've got the S and P 500 down about 1/5 of 1%.

And the NASDAQ down even more about 9/10 of 1%.

 

S&P 500(^GSPC)에서 주요한 역할을 하는 기업 중 하나인 Nvidia(NVDA)는 기록적인 랠리를 이어가고 있지만, 그 회사의 주가가 정점에 달했을 때 투자자들이 계속해서 주식을 매입해야 하는지에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다. Theory Ventures의 일반 파트너인 Tomasz Tunguz는 기술 부문에서 투자자들이 어떻게 행동해야 하는지에 대한 통찰력을 제공하기 위해 'Good Buy or Goodbye’의 최신 에디션에 참여했습니다.

Tunguz는 인공지능(AI) 분야에서 수십억 달러 규모의 사업을 운영하고 있으며, 기업용 AI 분야의 리더십을 가지고 있고, Microsoft의 고객 기반에서 AI의 침투가 제한적이기 때문에 성장 가능성이 충분하다고 언급하며 Microsoft(MSFT)를 '좋은 매수’로 평가했습니다. 그러나 Tunguz는 Microsoft와 OpenAI 간의 관계가 약화되고 있다는 점을 주요 우려사항으로 지적했습니다.

Tunguz는 경쟁이 치열해지고 있다는 이유로 Nvidia에 대해 '안녕’이라고 말하며, 회사가 소프트웨어로 다각화해야 할 필요가 있으며, 이는 앞으로 회사에게 큰 도전이 될 것이라고 경고했습니다.

이 글은 Nicholas Jacobino가 작성했습니다.

비디오 대본: 주식의 크고 시끄러운 우주에 오신 것을 환영합니다.

안녕하세요 또는 안녕하세요에 오신 것을 환영합니다.

 

그 소음을 뚫고 포트폴리오에 가장 좋은 움직임을 탐색하는 데 도움을 줍니다.

그리고 오늘 우리는 시가총액 1위 자리를 놓고 경쟁하는 가장 가치 있는 공개 기업들을 살펴보고 있습니다.

저는 Theory Ventures의 창립자 Thomas와 함께 있습니다.

여기.

당신은 이 거대한 기술주들을 살펴보고 있고, 당신의 매수 주식에 대해 이야기합시다.

그것은 지금 Microsoft입니다.

Microsoft는 이미 큰 상승세를 보였죠, 그렇죠?

AI에 대한 모든 이 낙관론에 힘입어, 하지만 당신은 여전히 좋은 매수라고 생각합니다.

그 이유에 대해 알아봅시다.

우선, 당신은 AI의 잠재력이 훨씬 더 크다고 생각합니다.

그것은 엄청납니다.

Microsoft를 살펴보면, 기본적으로 AI 분야의 리더입니다.

그들은 약 18개월 만에 50억 달러 규모의 사업을 개발했고, uh, 최소한 초기에는 OpenAI와의 관계 덕분에 데이터 센터에 대한 상당한 투자를 하고 있으며, uh, 데이터 센터만으로도 분기당 약 150억 달러를 캐피털 지출하고 있습니다. 그리고 우리가 아직 초기 단계에 있기 때문에, 정말로, 저는 주식이 의미 있는 상승 여력이 있다고 생각합니다.

Amazon과 Google과 비교해 볼 때, 그들의 상대적인 점유율을 보면, 다른 클라우드로부터 점유율을 빼앗고 있습니다.

그리고 마지막 역학은 5년 전입니다.

대부분의 스타트업들이 회사를 설립할 때, 그들은 Amazon 위에서 구축하고 싶어 했습니다.

그리고 오늘날 대부분의 회사들은 실제로 Microsoft 위에서 구축하고 있습니다. 왜냐하면 그들은 Azure 위에서 특히 초기에 AI 기능에 접근하고 싶어하기 때문입니다.

네, 흥미롭습니다.

그래서, um 그리고 AI는 정말로 Microsoft의 위치와 그들의 강점이 있는 곳입니다, 맞죠?

내 말은, 그리고 분명히 그들은 Azure 외부에서 그들이 제공하는 다른 모든 소프트웨어와도 다른 관계를 가지고 있습니다.

맞습니다.

Microsoft를 보면, 세계에서 가장 큰 소프트웨어 회사입니다.

그들이 지금 추구하고 있는 주요 움직임은 크로스 셀링 능력입니다.

그래서 만약 당신이 소프트웨어 엔지니어이고 AI를 원한다면, Microsoft가 그것을 판매할 것입니다.

만약 당신이 AI가 탑재된 랩톱을 원한다면, Microsoft가 그것을 판매할 것입니다.

다른 역학은 그들이 많은 다른 AI 모델 가족을 지원한다는 것입니다.

그래서 OpenAI 모델이 있습니다.

Facebook 메타 모델이 있습니다.

라마 모델 같은 것들, 그들은 그 모든 것들을 지원합니다.

그들은 자체 모델을 개발하고 있고, 그 결과로 기업 내에서 넓은 침투력을 가지고 있기 때문에, 다른 사람들이 가지고 있지 않은 많은 데이터에 접근할 수 있습니다.

그래서 그들은 훈련하고 추론하고 새로운 제품을 만들 수 있습니다.

그리고 그 크로스 셀링은 그들이 상당히 중요한 AI 사업을 구축하는 데 정말로 이끌 것입니다.

즉, 18개월 만에 50억 달러, 매년 700% 성장하는 것은 시가총액을 창출하는 놀라운 능력입니다.

그리고 그 성장에도 불구하고, 당신은 여전히 성장할 여지가 많다고 말합니다. 왜냐하면 그들이 지금 제공하고 있는 AI 스터프를 모든 고객이 사용하고 있지 않거나, 그들이 제공하는 기능의 전체 범위를 사용하고 있지 않기 때문입니다.

정확히 말하자면 그렇습니다.

 

NVIDIA의 성과는 정말 놀랍습니다. 매출이 5배 증가하고, 수익성은 약 40억 달러에서 46억 달러로 4년 만에 증가했습니다. 이는 주로 AI와 추론 분야에서의 성장에 힘입은 것으로, 60%에 달하는 이익률을 보이면서 많은 경쟁에 직면하게 되었습니다.

Google, Amazon, AMD 등이 자체 칩을 개발하면서 NVIDIA에 대한 경쟁이 치열해지고 있습니다. 특히 AMD는 현재 NVIDIA의 H100 인퍼런스 칩보다 30% 더 강력한 칩을 발표했습니다. 이러한 경쟁이 심화됨에 따라, NVIDIA의 수익성 성장은 GPU 가격의 두 배나 세 배 증가로 인한 것이며, 경쟁이 더욱 치열해지고 칩 개발에 대한 Capex 지출이 크게 증가함에 따라 이익률이 결국 축소될 것으로 보입니다.

또한, 주가수익비율(P/E)에 대해서도 언급했습니다. 지난 5년간 P/E는 몇 차례 급등했다가 다시 하락했는데, 현재는 아직 최고점에 도달하지 않았으며, 많은 전문가들은 실제로 평가가 그렇게 많이 오르지 않았다고 말합니다. NVIDIA는 지난 15년 동안 세 번의 주요 파동을 경험했는데, 첫 번째는 2010-2012년 게임 분야, 두 번째는 2018-2020년 암호화폐 분야, 그리고 현재는 AI 분야의 파동입니다. 각 파동에서 P/E는 50 이상으로 상승했다가 6-8분기 후에는 25로 떨어졌습니다.

NVIDIA에 대한 긍정적인 시나리오는 경쟁이 당장 나타나지 않을 수도 있다는 것입니다. 장기 투자자의 관점에서 보면, NVIDIA와 경쟁하기 위해서는 칩을 생산해야 하며, 미국 내에서는 칩 제조 능력이 제한적입니다. 80년대와 90년대에 전체 팹리스(fabless) 웨이브를 통해 외주화했기 때문에, 제조 시설을 구축하고 가동하는 데 오랜 시간이 걸릴 것입니다. Facebook, Amazon, Google 등이 자체 칩을 개발하고 있지만, 생산을 빠르게 확대하거나 수요를 충족시키기 어려울 수 있습니다. 실제로 Microsoft는 최근 분기 보고에서 수요를 충족시키지 못하고 있다고 발표했습니다.

NVIDIA의 주식에 대한 투자자의 입장은 Microsoft가 가장 큰 공개 주식 포지션이며, NVIDIA는 매우 작은 포지션을 차지하고 있다고 합니다. 이는 NVIDIA에 대한 다소 역발상적인 견해를 보여주는 것으로, 향후 NVIDIA의 발전 가능성에 대한 흥미로운 관점을 제공합니다.

반도체 부문은 지난 7주 동안 최악의 거래일을 보았으며, NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet 등 일부 주요 기술주의 수익 수정은 S&P 500 전체보다 35% 이상 높습니다. McDonald’s는 성장이 둔화되고 있으며, Burger King과 같은 경쟁업체에 비해 동일 매장 매출이 뒤처지고 있습니다. 이러한 시장 역학의 변화는 패스트푸드 체인들이 예산을 의식하는 소비자들을 끌어들이기 위해 가치 중심의 식사 옵션으로 전환함에 따라 나타나고 있습니다.

AI 열풍이 시장 전반에 걸쳐 확산됨에 따라 벤처 캐피탈 분야의 현황에 대한 통찰력을 제공하고, 위대한 창업자가 갖추어야 할 특성에 대해 논의합니다. Amazon Web Services는 최신 ‘Lead This Way’ 에디션에서 인공지능을 활용하여 의료 서비스를 개선하고자 합니다.