Global PC Shipments shares 2025

Global PC Shipments Rise 8.1% YoY in Q3 2025 as Windows 10 Sunset, Tariff Dynamics Spur Market Recovery

Overview and Market Rebound Context

After two years of steep declines in the PC industry (with 2023’s slump deemed “unparalleled in the industry’s recorded history” ), the third quarter of 2025 marked a notable turnaround. Global PC shipments climbed 8.1% year-over-year (YoY) in Q3 2025, according to preliminary data . This is one of the strongest rebounds in recent years and indicates a steady market recovery. The growth was fueled by a convergence of factors – primarily the looming end-of-support for Microsoft Windows 10 and strategic moves by PC vendors around U.S. import tariffs  . These catalysts prompted both consumers and enterprises to upgrade their hardware sooner rather than later, ending a prolonged slump and driving fresh demand across global markets.

Q3 2025 PC Market Highlights

• Strong YoY Shipment Growth: Worldwide PC shipments rose 8.1% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 . This broad-based growth comes after a multi-year downturn and was mainly driven by an OS upgrade cycle and inventory timing. The impending Windows 10 end-of-life (October 2025) acted as an industry-wide refresh trigger, as users rushed to replace aging Windows 10 machines ahead of support expiration . Simultaneously, PC makers engaged in “strategic inventory adjustments” – essentially pulling in shipments before certain import tariffs could raise costs – which boosted quarterly sales figures . (In other words, vendors and buyers moved to buy new PCs before tariffs made them more expensive .) For the first time since 2021, the PC market showed solid annual growth, signaling a pivot from stagnation to recovery.
• Top Vendors Outperforming: The market rebound was led by the biggest OEMs, most of whom recorded double-digit shipment increases. Lenovo retained its #1 spot with shipments up 17.4% YoY – the highest growth among the top six vendors . HP in second place saw +10.3% YoY growth, fueled by strong commercial demand . Apple posted a 14.9% YoY surge in Mac shipments on the back of popular new MacBook models and rising enterprise adoption . Asus achieved 14.1% YoY growth (and an impressive +22.5% QoQ bounce from the previous quarter) thanks to strong consumer notebook and gaming laptop sales . Dell was the only top-five vendor to dip annually (slipping 0.9% YoY), reflecting cautious enterprise spending, though it still managed a modest sequential uptick of +2.7% QoQ .
• Market Consolidation Intensifies: The strong gains by market leaders further consolidated global PC market share at the top. Collectively, Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple, and Asus now account for roughly 75% of worldwide PC shipments . This underscores a trend of larger players tightening their hold on the market, while smaller OEMs struggled – many smaller brands saw flat or declining shipments during Q3 . The high-end consolidation suggests that scale, supply chain strength, and enterprise relationships are more important than ever in the PC business.
• Emerging Impact of AI PCs: “AI PCs” – computers with built-in on-device AI acceleration – entered the conversation in 2025, although they have not yet significantly boosted sales. Many PC makers launched new models with integrated Neural Processing Units (NPUs) capable of running AI assistants and generative AI models locally (without cloud reliance) . However, buyers in 2025 remained focused on fundamental upgrades like operating system compatibility, performance, and battery life over nascent AI features . For now, AI-capable PCs are more about future-proofing: some enterprises are starting to include AI-enabled models in their refresh cycles not due to immediate needs, but to avoid being outdated in a few years . Industry analysts expect the AI PC trend to become a major sales driver after 2026, once more advanced AI-centric chips and use cases mature   (see more under “Rise of the AI PC” below).

Global PC shipments by major OEM in Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024. Each bar shows shipment volumes (in millions of units) for Q3 2024 (left, lighter color) and Q3 2025 (right, darker color) for the top vendors and others. The percentage indicates the YoY shipment growth for each segment. The industry’s overall shipments grew about 8% YoY, led by Lenovo’s ~17% jump, while smaller OEMs collectively saw declines  .

Windows 10 Sunset Triggers Upgrade Cycle

Microsoft’s end-of-support for Windows 10 (scheduled in October 2025) has proven to be a key catalyst for the PC refresh cycle. The “Windows 10 sunset” essentially put a ticking clock on both consumers and businesses, pushing them to replace or upgrade any PCs still running the decade-old OS . Counterpoint Research notes that “the Windows 10 sunset has effectively acted as an industry-wide refresh timer, prompting both enterprises and consumers to replace aging systems ahead of the October deadline” . The scale of this upgrade wave is significant – by Q3 2025 nearly 40% of the installed PC base was still on Windows 10, meaning tens of millions of machines potentially needed replacement in the short term . This pent-up replacement demand is poised to be a major catalyst for PC market growth over the next few quarters as laggards finally move to Windows 11 or other platforms .

Notably, the urgency of the Windows 10 migration was slightly tempered by Microsoft’s support policies. Windows 10 reached its official end-of-life in late October 2025, but extended security updates (paid or free) will continue for another year for some users . This means some organizations have a bit more breathing room to transition. Nonetheless, the Q3 data suggests many did not wait until the last minute – they began refreshing PCs throughout 2025 to avoid running outdated software . In essence, the OS transition created a natural upgrade cycle that lifted PC sales globally in anticipation of the deadline.

Inventory Moves and Tariff Dynamics

Another less obvious factor contributing to the Q3 shipment surge was vendors’ maneuvers around U.S. import tariffs. The Counterpoint report highlights “strategic inventory adjustments linked to evolving US import tariff policies” as a tailwind for the quarter . In practical terms, PC manufacturers pulled forward production and shipments to get ahead of potential tariff changes. By fine-tuning their inventory and supply chain timing, vendors ensured more units were shipped before new tariffs or tariff reinstatements could kick in and raise costs .

These inventory and pricing strategies were especially pertinent for PCs imported into the United States from China, which have faced on-and-off tariff uncertainty in recent years. The Q3 timing suggests that some previously exempted tariffs were expected to resume or increase, so both vendors and buyers had an incentive to act sooner. As PC Gamer succinctly explained, companies were selling and consumers were buying “before tariffs make them even more expensive.”  This preemptive surge in shipments ahead of tariff deadlines provided an extra boost to the quarterly numbers. It’s a one-time gain in a sense, but it helped clear out inventory and meet demand at lower cost. Going forward, if tariff rates do change, the market might see a short-term slowdown (as the pulled-forward demand is satisfied), but for Q3 2025 the effect was clearly positive.

Leading Vendors: Performance and Drivers

The Q3 rebound was uneven across vendors, with the biggest players capturing most of the growth. The top five PC makers all saw substantial increases (except Dell’s slight dip), while smaller brands collectively stagnated. Below is a breakdown of each major vendor’s performance and the drivers behind it:
• Lenovo: 17.4% YoY shipment growth – Lenovo strengthened its position as the world’s #1 PC OEM . This was the highest growth rate among the top vendors, enabled by Lenovo’s balanced focus on both commercial and consumer markets and its efficient channel management . The company capitalized early on the Windows 10 replacement cycle, leveraging its global scale and distribution to meet the surge in demand.
• HP: 10.3% YoY shipment growth – HP firmly held the #2 spot globally . Its double-digit growth was driven by robust upgrades in the enterprise and education sectors . HP’s deep relationships with corporate and institutional customers paid off as those clients refreshed large fleets of PCs ahead of the Windows 10 EOL. Strong sales of HP’s commercial desktops and laptops underscore its solid footing in the commercial segment .
• Dell: 0.9% YoY shipment decline – Dell was a notable outlier, with shipments down slightly year-on-year . However, it did see a small sequential uptick (+2.7% QoQ in Q3) , indicating some stabilization. Dell’s heavier reliance on large corporate and government clients meant its refresh cycles were more cautious and elongated . Many enterprises in Dell’s core market segments took a measured approach to upgrades in 2025, which tempered the company’s growth. In essence, Dell’s exposure to conservative enterprise spending in North America and Europe translated to flat-to-down YoY performance even as the overall market climbed.
• Apple: 14.9% YoY shipment growth – Apple saw a robust jump in Mac shipments, nearly double the overall PC market growth rate . This was fueled by the popularity of Apple’s latest MacBook Air and Pro models featuring the newest M-series chips, which delivered strong performance and battery life gains. Consumer demand was high, and importantly Apple made further inroads into enterprise deployments . Counterpoint noted a steady rise in enterprise adoption of Macs as companies diversify beyond Windows PCs . Apple’s momentum in Q3 put it effectively tied with HP for the second-largest YoY growth among top vendors.
• Asus: 14.1% YoY shipment growth – Asus was another standout performer, and in fact it led on a quarter-over-quarter basis with +22.5% QoQ growth (highest among all vendors for Q3) . Year-on-year, Asus shipments rose by about 14%, thanks largely to strong consumer notebook demand . The company’s emphasis on gaming laptops and creator-focused notebooks paid off, as those categories saw renewed consumer interest in 2025. Competitive pricing and effective retail channel promotions helped Asus capture a wave of back-to-school and holiday-season buyers, boosting its shipments dramatically in Q3 .

Overall, these top five vendors collectively shipped nearly three-quarters of all PCs worldwide in the quarter . Their gains highlight how the market rebound has been concentrated at the top, with big brands leveraging their scale, product breadth, and supply advantages to absorb most of the new demand. In contrast, many smaller OEMs either barely maintained last year’s volumes or continued to decline, unable to fully participate in the refresh-driven uptick . This ongoing consolidation means the leading players are likely to wield even more influence heading into the next technology cycle.

Rise of the AI PC Era (Beyond 2025)

While the current sales resurgence has a lot to do with operating system upgrades, industry observers agree that the next big chapter for PCs will be defined by AI. Counterpoint’s senior analyst Minsoo Kang pointed out that “the industry is poised for an even more profound transformation with the rise of the AI PC”, even if that shift “has not yet fully materialized in the Q3 2025 numbers.”   In 2025, almost all major OEMs began touting AI-enhanced models – laptops and desktops equipped with dedicated AI hardware (like NPUs) to accelerate tasks such as generative AI assistants, local language model processing, real-time image/video enhancement, and other machine learning applications . The vision is that future PCs will seamlessly handle AI workloads on-device, rather than relying heavily on cloud services.

So far, these AI features have been more of a marketing and future-proofing play than a reason for most people to buy a new PC. Buyers have largely prioritized the basics – OS compatibility, CPU/GPU performance, memory, and battery life – over AI capabilities that are still in early stages . Many enterprises are nonetheless including “AI-ready” PCs in their procurement as a hedge, ensuring that the machines they deploy now will be capable of leveraging advanced AI software in a year or two . As Associate Director David Naranjo explained, “The PC market’s rebound in 2025 is not just about replacing outdated systems, it is about preparing for what is next. Many enterprises are choosing AI-capable PCs to future-proof their fleets… The next refresh cycle will be defined by intelligence at the edge, not just performance improvements.” . In other words, the groundwork for an AI-centric upgrade cycle is being laid now, even if the payoff in sales will come later.

Next-Gen AI Silicon Arriving 2026–2027

Both component makers and PC OEMs expect significant growth in the AI PC segment starting in 2026-2027, corresponding with the launch of new AI-optimized processors  . Several silicon players have announced upcoming chips tailored for AI performance in PCs:
• Qualcomm has unveiled the Snapdragon X Elite series for Windows PCs (sometimes referenced as “X2 Elite”), featuring powerful built-in NPUs for on-device AI inference . These Arm-based processors are designed to bring smartphone-level AI capabilities to ultra-portable laptops, enabling features like real-time language translation, image recognition, and smart assistant functions to run locally.
• Intel is readying its next-generation Core Ultra “Panther Lake” processors (succeeding the 14th Gen Core). Panther Lake will incorporate advanced neural acceleration hardware, significantly improving AI throughput for PC workloads . Intel’s roadmap also references a following generation called “Nova Lake”, likewise expected to amplify on-chip AI capabilities . Early demos of Panther Lake have impressed observers with efficient AI task handling alongside traditional computing tasks .
• NVIDIA – known for GPU prowess – is partnering with MediaTek and others to develop Arm-based PC chipsets with integrated NVIDIA GPU technology aimed at AI and graphics . This could result in new PC platforms (especially laptops) that leverage NVIDIA’s AI software stack and GPU acceleration, blurring the line between mobile SoCs and traditional PC CPUs. NVIDIA’s involvement signals that AI PCs will not just rely on CPUs with NPUs, but also on hybrid architectures combining CPU, GPU, and dedicated AI cores.

According to Counterpoint, mass shipments of these AI-focused chips will not hit full stride until late 2026, with broader availability in consumer PCs by 2027 . This timeline suggests that the true “AI PC boom” – where a significant portion of new PCs sold have AI acceleration and buyers actively seek it out – will likely take off in 2027 and the latter half of the decade . Industry events in 2026, such as CES 2026, are expected to heavily showcase on-device AI demos and AI-integrated PC product lines as the dawn of a more intelligent computing era . By that time, AI capabilities may become a standard selling point, shifting the conversation from raw performance to how intelligently a PC can operate at the edge (handling speech recognition, predictive algorithms, etc., on its own hardware).

https://valuable12.com/entry/China-Smartphone-Market-Overview-Q3-2025-Early-Q4-2025

Outlook: Towards a More Intelligent PC Market

Q3 2025’s growth can be viewed as a pivotal bridge to the future of PCs. The immediate gains were driven by a one-time OS migration and some savvy inventory timing, but those new PCs deployed in 2025 are also enabling the next stage of innovation. With Windows 10 now retired, the industry’s eyes are on the horizon: if the Windows transition provided a needed sales jolt, the rise of AI PCs promises a more profound evolution of the PC’s role. Analysts predict that PCs with specialized AI capabilities will unlock new uses and user experiences, from advanced productivity assistants to on-the-fly content creation and data analysis tools running locally. This could revitalize demand in a way not seen since the introduction of the smartphone or the cloud era.

For now, the data shows a healthy recovery underway – Q3 2025 was a high note that saw leading vendors thrive and the overall market stabilize . As Minsoo Kang summarized, the current refresh cycle is about “preparing for transformation”, with the real impact still to come . If the bets on AI pay off, the latter half of this decade could witness the PC’s biggest leap forward in a generation, ushering in an age where raw processing power shares the stage with artificial intelligence as the key metric of a computer’s value. The stage is set: 2025 has proven that the PC is far from dead – it’s evolving and gearing up for its next act.

Sources: Preliminary Q3 2025 data and analysis from Counterpoint Research  ; additional context from IDC, Gartner, and press reports. Counterpoint Senior Analyst Minsoo Kang and Associate Director David Naranjo quotes via Counterpoint Research and PC Gamer  . Vendor-specific performance details from Counterpoint (reported in New Indian Express and Technext)  . Windows 10 end-of-support and tariff impact analysis from PC Gamer  . Future outlook on AI PCs informed by Counterpoint projections  and industry announcements from Qualcomm, Intel, NVIDIA .